Nepal
By Narayan Prasad Ghimire
With the vote count after the November 20 elections for the House of Representatives and the Province Assembly almost over, political parties and leaders have intensified the race for formation of new government. Who will be the next prime minister is just intriguing yet.
Irrespective of their pride and pledges, actions and announcements, and confidence and conjecture, the political parties know their true strength shown by the sovereign citizen. Clearly, there is a hung parliament in the making. Whosoever forms the government and becomes the prime minister, messages from the elections cannot be brushed aside.
The leaderships of the traditional parties are forced to eat humble pie after they received cold shoulder from the voters. The most manifest example is the valiant entry of new parties as Rastriya Swatantra Party, Janamat Party and Nagarik Unmukti Party.
It is worth noting here that after the May 13 local level elections the country held early this year, Baburam Bhattarai had strongly warned his fellow lawmakers that many of them would be swept away in the elections. He had explained the victory of independent candidates Harka Sampang of Dharan Sub-Metropolis and Balen Shah in Kathmandu Metropolis as 'a spark that could set the country ablaze.' Bhattarai also admitted that he would not be able to face the situation.
He retreated from the election but brought his daughter forward from Kathmandu-7. But in vain.
With the victory of vibrant youths from different places including the federal capital of Kathmandu, who have defeated traditional party heavyweights, some old party leaders are warning of political and "parliamentary instability". Any such instability is bound to happen with no party win even a simple majority in the House of Representatives. Hung parliament is a reality. Bhattarai's warning came true, in that heavyweights from Kathmandu Valley and Chitwan were beaten by new entrants, including that of Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP). RSP mostly the campaigned against incumbency rather than exposition of party organization and ideology.
The ruling alliance had also formed an electoral alliance with Nepali Congress, CPN (Maoist Centre), CPN (Unified Socialist), Rastriya Janamorcha, and Loktantrik Samajbadi Party. The alliance is least likely to grab 138 of the 275 seats in the Lower House of Parliament, let alone a two-thirds majority that they fancied in the run-up to the election.
New entrants
The emergence of new faces in the Kathmandu Valley where Nepali Congress and communist parties dominated can be taken as an informed civic sense and urgency to change underscored by the youth voters. Those elected from RSP include Sobita Gautam, Kathmandu-2; Sishir Khanal, Kathmandu-6; Ganesh Parajuli, Kathmandu-7; and Biraj Bhakta Shrestha, Kathmandu-8. Nepali Congress stalwart Prakash Man Singh faced a tough battle in Kathmandu-1 and won the election with mere 125 votes.
Similarly, the defeat of leader Pampha Bhushal of CPN Maoist Centre from Lalitpur-3 by Dr Toshima Karki with threefold more votes, and two other seats in Chitwan by Rabi Lamichhane in Chitwan-2 and Hari Dhakal in Chitwan-1 are striking examples that the voters wanted change.
Lamichhane won the election by more than threefold votes. CPN UML’s Senior Vice Chairman Ishwor Pokharel was defeated by Nepali Congress youth leader Pradip Poudel in Kathmandu-5 while General Secretary Shankar Pokhrel lost to the ruling coalition candidate Rekha Sharma in Dang-2.
Home Minister Balkrishna Khand lost to Rastriya Prajatantra Party's Dipak Bohara. CPN (Maoist Centre) General Secretary Dev Prasad Gurung’s lost in Lamjung. Moreover, the rise of Nagarik Unmukti Party in Sudurpaschim Province and the Janamat Party in Madhes Province suggest challenges before the traditional parties. Chair of Janamat Party CK Raut with relatively short political background defeated Madheshi heavyweight Upendra Yadav. Sagar Dhakal who contested against NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba drew attention of many.
Learning, unlearning
While the new parties need too fresh and need to learn as they have no experience in national politics and parliamentary affairs. The old ones need to unlearn. Now, how the government will be formed and how it will deliver to the people is for everyone to wait and watch .
As political scientist Sanjeeb Ghimire said: “It is normal to see the emergence of new parties and leaders through election in democracy. The entry of news parties as Rastriya Swatantra Party, Nagarik Janamat Party and the Unmukti Party is the reflection of anti-incumbency campaign. If the old parties fail to deliver again on their promises, they will be swept away even from the rural constituencies.”
According to him, political parties cannot survive without ideology, policy and programmes. "The ideology they will adopt and how that materialises will determine their future."
Political analyst Keshab Dahal said: "Traditional voters have warned the old parties that voters would no longer stick to them if they failed to deliver. Voters also reminded that old parties would see a steady decline, and erode fast once they glued to status quo. Decreased votes to old parties is reminder of ‘do or die’ to them."
According to Dahal, the message is clear: "The new parties need to have ideological clarity and should be able to implement the promises, thereby building party organisation." While the political parties have no alternative, this election has given adequate lessons – that is if they are willing to learn.
